President Donald Trump is promising Americans relief at the pump, and he says it is coming soon. Speaking to reporters at the White House on Sunday, September 27, before heading to Chicago, Trump said oil will come "plummeting down" as soon as Iran gives up and the war ends, which he predicted will happen soon. He also claimed that grocery prices have come way down compared with the Biden years, saying almost every price has fallen, and that oil is now cheaper than it was under his predecessor. On top of that, Trump said the United States took a record amount of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz overnight, more than before the war began.

Those claims come with plenty of caveats, and the reports I reviewed did not independently confirm the record-shipment figure or the price comparisons. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war started in February, disrupting shipping and sending Brent crude well above $100 a barrel at times this year. Trump's remarks came right after he rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the waterway, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran will not soften its conditions and had received no official response through mediators Qatar and Pakistan. Iranian media claimed forces targeted 19 vessels in the strait over the weekend, and Trump told Fox News that further strikes before the November midterms are not ruled out. Whether oil really drops, then, depends on whether talks that are currently stalled can end the fighting.