US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is striking an upbeat tone on fuel prices heading into the final stretch before Election Day, pointing to oil supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz as a key reason for optimism. We've got increasing supplies coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, Wright said, and they've continued to rise over the last months, over the last recent weeks. He paired that claim with news that US gasoline production has hit a record high, even as demand cools now that the summer driving season has wound down. Taken together, Wright argued, those trends point toward lower prices at the pump in the weeks ahead.

Diesel remains the trickier piece of the puzzle, Wright acknowledged, with Russia's war in Ukraine choking off Russian exports and China pulling back its own diesel shipments just as flows out of the Gulf have been reduced. He pointed to Europe's large diesel reserves as a potential pressure valve, arguing that releasing some of that stored fuel could help ease tight supplies not just in the US but globally. Wright also took aim at domestic refining capacity, noting that two major California refineries have shut down under Governor Gavin Newsom, a loss he suggested has added unnecessary strain to West Coast fuel markets. Even so, Wright said he remains confident that both gasoline and diesel prices will keep trending downward in the near term.