After Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, President Donald Trump brushed off the results by saying presidents always lose the midterms, that he doesn't know why, and that there were a lot bigger losses than this one. History backs up part of his point, because the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the 20 midterm elections since 1946, with an average loss of about 26 seats. Some past defeats were bigger in the House, including Dwight Eisenhower's loss of 50 seats in 1958 and Gerald Ford's loss of 48 in 1974. Trump's own party lost about 41 or 42 House seats in 2018, which cost Republicans control of the chamber.

Whether this year's losses are "bigger" depends on which chamber you look at, and analysts say the Senate results stand out. Democrats have secured 54 Senate seats to 44 for Republicans, with two races still outstanding, according to Newsweek, after flipping seven Republican-held seats without losing any, and five of those were in states Trump won by double digits in 2024. The average loss for the president's party in the Senate is only about four seats, although eight were lost in 1986 and 1994 and nine in 2014. Al Jazeera described the overall results as a worse-than-expected rout for Republicans, and the House count was still being finalized at the time. So Trump is right that midterm losses are the norm, but the size of the Senate swing is the reason many analysts say this is no ordinary midterm penalty.