ELECTORAL COLLEGE SHOWDOWN LOOMS: Democrats Win Five Key States But Compact Isn't Law Yet

A viral post is claiming it's "official" that Democrats have enough states to automatically hand the presidency to the national popular vote winner, but the real picture is more complicated. In the November 3 midterms, Democrats won the governorship and both legislative chambers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, which together hold 61 electoral votes. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is currently law in 18 states and Washington, D.C., which hold 222 electoral votes, and it only takes effect once members control at least 270. If all five states join, the total would reach 283, which is why Democrats' wins have set off a firestorm. But none of those five states has joined yet, the Electoral College would formally remain in place, and states would simply promise to award their electors to the national popular vote winner.

Getting there is far from certain, and a legal fight is likely if it ever happens. Michigan failed to pass the compact during its last Democratic trifecta in 2023 and 2024, and Nevada's Democratic governor vetoed it in 2019, warning it could weaken his state's influence in presidential races. Legal challenges are expected, including over whether Congress must approve such a compact, and no court has ruled on that question, so the claim that it is "totally unconstitutional" is one side's argument, not a settled fact. Supporters say it would make every vote count equally and end the focus on a handful of swing states, while opponents argue it sidesteps the Constitution's amendment process and the states' role in choosing a president. Reports also differ on whether Arizona's Democratic trifecta is final, but even without it the other four states would be enough to pass 270, so the big question is whether Democrats actually try, and how soon.