President Donald Trump says fresh U.S. strikes on Iran are "highly unlikely" as long as negotiations keep moving forward, a notable signal in a conflict that has gone on for months. In a CNN interview on Sunday, he made clear the outcome depends on whether Tehran signs a very strong agreement, and he did not rule out military action if it refuses. The message arrives just as Trump prepares to host Qatar's prime minister at the White House on Monday. Qatar has been one of the key go-betweens trying to secure a new ceasefire and restart talks on Iran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Behind the diplomacy, the pressure at sea has not eased. U.S. forces are still enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran continues to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carried about a fifth of the world's energy supplies before the war. Iranian officials have warned they will hit back hard if the U.S. renews its attacks, and they are pushing for a deal that would lift the blockade and ease sanctions. Trump rejected Tehran's earlier peace proposal in September, so the two sides remain far apart on who has to give ground first. The big question now is whether this week's talks can turn into a real agreement, or whether the standoff in one of the world's most important shipping lanes is heading for another explosion.