i24NEWS Senior Middle East Correspondent Ariel Oseran has voiced sharp skepticism over recent claims by Saudi and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces that they are making meaningful territorial gains in their newly launched offensive. Speaking amid the start of Operation Dawn of Yemen on October 5, 2026, Oseran pointed to a longstanding pattern in the conflict, noting that when those forces announce advances on the ground it usually turns out to mean the opposite of what is reported. The operation involves Saudi-led coalition air support for government troops aiming to retake key positions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the town of Dhubab after Houthi forces expanded along the coast in September. Those earlier Houthi moves included the capture of Mocha port and Perim Island, developments that intensified worries about control of vital Red Sea shipping lanes. Oseran’s assessment draws directly from repeated cycles of announcements and later realities observed throughout the long Yemen conflict. His comments highlight how official statements on progress often clash with the fluid and contested nature of the fighting on the southern fronts.

The correspondent’s remark arrives as both sides continue to issue competing narratives about control of strategic coastal and strait-adjacent areas. Operation Dawn of Yemen was presented as a major push to reverse Houthi gains and restore government authority over routes critical to maritime traffic. Yet Oseran’s “rule of thumb” underscores a cautious reading of battlefield updates coming from Riyadh-aligned sources, based on historical discrepancies between claimed advances and actual outcomes. The broader civil war dynamics, including shifting alliances and rapid changes in territorial control, have repeatedly shown that early reports of momentum can prove temporary or overstated. Independent verification of exact front-line movements remains difficult amid the intensity of the exchanges. Oseran’s perspective adds a note of measured doubt at a moment when the Red Sea corridor’s security continues to draw international attention.