President Trump is sticking to his script after Republicans were hit hard in the midterms, saying from the Oval Office that the country is "doing very well" and pointing to thousands of new plants and factories being built, along with his tariffs. The message came after Democrats flipped both the House and the Senate, picking up seats in places like Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Ohio and Iowa. Voters pointed to high prices, the Iran war and fuel costs as major reasons, and a CNBC poll found 74 percent of voters said the war was a major factor in how they voted. Trump has said the war drove gas prices up in the short term, but he has not signaled a change in his economic pitch.

There is data behind part of his argument, as the economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest pace in about a year, helped by business investment and strong consumer spending. The catch is that inflation is also running hot, with the annual PCE reading at 3.6% in September, which helps explain why many voters do not feel the boom. His factory claims are also disputed, with an AP fact check finding his numbers on new auto plants were off, even as the White House credits tariffs with new jobs at places like the Paccar truck plant in Texas. The Supreme Court has also struck down his earlier tariffs, so the policy he is touting is in flux. Whether voters give him credit in the final two years of his term may depend on whether prices come down, and that could matter more than any factory count.