NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki says Democrats may be heading into the 2026 midterm elections with significant political challenges, as new polling data signals weakening support for the party.

In his latest analysis, Kornacki noted that Democrats currently hold a narrow 3-point advantage in generic congressional ballot polls — less than half of the 7.8-point lead they enjoyed at the same point before the 2018 “blue wave” midterms. The numbers, he said, suggest that enthusiasm among Democratic voters may be slipping amid ongoing economic concerns and voter fatigue.

Kornacki also cited NBC’s latest survey showing Democratic Party favorability at its lowest level in 30 years. “These are early warning signs for a party hoping to retake control of Congress,” he said, adding that Democrats’ ability to motivate their base could be the decisive factor heading into 2026.

Republicans, meanwhile, are benefiting from growing voter confidence in economic and border policies under President Trump’s administration, according to the same poll. With inflation still a key issue for middle-class families and approval of GOP-led state governments rising, the balance of power in Congress could once again tilt in the Republicans’ favor next year.

Analysts say the 2026 midterms will serve as a major test of whether Democrats can reverse declining momentum — or if the Trump-era Republican resurgence will continue to shape the nation’s political landscape.