A new Marist poll has Democrats comfortably ahead in New York with Election Day just days away. Among likely voters, 🟦 56% say they would back the Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 🟥 42% for the Republican, a 14-point gap on the generic ballot. The survey was conducted October 22 to 25 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. The same poll has Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman 53% to 42% among likely voters, and 71% of those voters expect her to win re-election.

The numbers also point to how much President Trump is shaping the race. Forty-seven percent of likely voters say their congressional vote is mainly a vote against him, while 18% say it is mainly a vote in favor of him and 34% say it has nothing to do with him. There are some warning signs for Democrats, though, since independents who are likely to vote lean Republican on the congressional ballot, 51% to 45%. Blakeman has pushed back on the polling, accusing pollsters of discouraging his supporters, and a poll is only a snapshot of opinion rather than a prediction of the result. What matters now is turnout, and the real answer comes on November 3.