With less than a week to go before the November 3 midterm elections, roughly 33 million Americans have already cast their ballots. As of Wednesday, October 28, the count was split almost evenly, with about 16 million votes cast in person and about 16 million returned by mail. According to the University of Florida's Election Lab, that already adds up to more than a quarter of the roughly 122 million people who voted in the 2022 midterms. Early voting is also surging in key battleground states, as the fight for control of Congress heads into its final stretch.

The pace looks strong in many places. Independent trackers show turnout running ahead of 2022 in a number of states, though it isn't ahead everywhere, and Florida is running slightly behind its 2022 pace. In states that report party registration, registered Democrats make up a larger share of early ballots than registered Republicans, and about a quarter of early voters are not registered with either party. Election Lab director Michael McDonald warns that early voting data cannot predict who will win, because it only measures who has voted so far, not how they voted. With tens of millions of ballots still to come, the big question is whether this early rush means higher overall turnout or simply voters showing up sooner.