Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan delivered one of the boldest claims in the forecasting world during his December 2025 interview on 60 Minutes, declaring that his platform is “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.” Coplan, who began building Polymarket at just 21 years old, now oversees a blockchain-based prediction market valued at more than $9 billion—an ecosystem where users wager money on political outcomes, global events, economic shifts, and virtually anything that can be measured.

Coplan’s confidence is rooted in the platform’s performance. During the 2024 U.S. election, Polymarket consistently outperformed traditional polling, maintaining accuracy rates above 90 percent according to independent analyses from Dune Analytics and data scientist Alex McCullough. Studies show Polymarket predictions reach around 94 percent accuracy within four hours of event resolution and remain roughly 90 percent accurate even a month beforehand. These numbers surpass mainstream polling firms that often struggle with sampling errors, demographic blind spots, and shifting voter sentiment.

The platform’s accuracy is attributed to its design: users risk real money, creating strong incentives to align predictions with reality rather than partisanship or speculation. Coplan argues this “financial truth serum” makes prediction markets fundamentally more reliable than polls, expert panels, or algorithmic models. By pooling thousands of decentralized forecasts, Polymarket forms consensus expectations that update instantly as new information emerges.

Founded in 2020, Polymarket has since expanded into one of the world’s largest event-based markets, attracting retail users, analysts, and hedge funds alike. Supporters say the platform’s success marks a turning point in how societies forecast elections, crises, and economic trends. Critics, however, caution that prediction markets reflect crowds’ expectations, not guarantees.

Still, Coplan insists the results speak for themselves. With Polymarket’s meteoric rise, growing accuracy metrics, and a rapidly expanding user base, his claim that prediction markets may be humanity’s most precise forecasting mechanism is increasingly difficult to dismiss.