WASHINGTON, D.C. — As tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, Army veteran and national security expert Lt. Col. James Carafano says Iran’s primary concern is regime preservation, even as it refuses to back down from its nuclear ambitions.

Speaking in response to Tehran’s recent declaration that it will not abandon its enrichment program, Carafano emphasized that the Iranian government views its nuclear development as a survival mechanism, not just a military tool.

“Iran’s number one priority right now is regime preservation,” said Carafano. “They see the nuclear program as both a deterrent and a symbol of strength to control internal unrest and project power abroad.”

His remarks follow recent reports that Iranian nuclear facilities sustained major damage from U.S. and Israeli operations, but Tehran remains defiant in continuing its efforts. Carafano warned that this posture increases the risk of regional conflict, especially as hardliners within the regime grow more entrenched.

Meanwhile, global diplomatic attention is also shifting toward the possibility of a high-stakes meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, which the Kremlin has not ruled out. Analysts say such a summit could potentially reshape the strategic balance across the Middle East and Eastern Europe, particularly as Russia and Iran continue deepening military and economic ties.

Carafano suggested that a Trump–Putin meeting could offer a new avenue for influencing Iran indirectly, through Russia’s role as one of Tehran’s few remaining allies.

“If President Trump and President Putin sit down, Iran will be watching very closely,” Carafano added. “It could be a chance to send a powerful message without firing a shot.”

As Iran digs in on its nuclear position and the international community weighs its next steps, regime survival—not peace—is driving Tehran’s decisions, Carafano cautions.