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DEMOCRATS CLOSE IN: Fox Power Rankings Shift Toward Democrats In Key Midterm Races

October 28th,

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New polling and the final Fox News Power Rankings show Democrats gaining ground in several key races just days before the midterm elections. Fox shifted three Senate races in their direction, moving Ohio from toss-up to Lean Democrat, South Carolina from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Mississippi from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted 47 to 44 percent in a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll, which is within the margin of error, and Fox also moved the Ohio governor's race to Lean Democrat. Overall, Fox's forecast has Democrats favored in 48 Senate seats and Republicans in 47, which leaves both parties short of a majority and makes control of the Senate a toss-up. In the House, the rankings still see Democrats as likely to flip control, with at least 223 seats.

President Trump is continuing his campaign push for Republican candidates and is heading to Ohio after rallies in Texas. His focus on states he won in 2024 shows how much of the Senate fight is playing out in Republican-leaning territory. Still, there are reasons for caution, since an average of about 10 percent of voters in Alaska, Iowa and Kansas say they haven't decided, and Republicans have been underestimated in polls before. The big question is whether these late shifts in the polls and rankings turn into votes on November 3.