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WARSH DRAWS THE LINE: Full Employment Clears Path For Rate Hikes

September 17th,

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Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told BloombergTV that the central bank's dual mandate gives it room to check one box before tackling the other, arguing the Fed can first assess whether the economy is at or near full employment and then turn its full attention to restoring stable prices. Warsh has repeatedly described labor market data as broadly consistent with full employment, a framing that effectively clears the runway for the Fed to treat inflation as its dominant concern. That logic was on full display this week when the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter point on September 16, its first hike since 2023, with officials signaling another increase could come before the year is out. Warsh said the Fed's predominant focus right now is squarely on the price stability side of its mandate, even as he acknowledged inflation remains uncomfortably high.

The comments land at a politically loaded moment, with President Trump having pushed hard for lower rates and a growing bloc of Fed officials pulling in the opposite direction, favoring tighter policy sooner rather than later. Warsh has leaned into a quieter, more disciplined approach since taking over as chair, deliberately pulling back on the kind of forward guidance his predecessors relied on and instead letting incoming data speak for itself. By framing full employment as effectively settled, Warsh is giving himself and the committee political cover to keep raising rates without appearing to abandon the Fed's jobs mandate altogether. It is a delicate balancing act, one that puts Warsh's credibility, and the Fed's independence, squarely to the test in the months ahead.