The first exit poll from i24NEWS is out, and it hands Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud a lead on election night. The poll projects 27 seats for Likud and 20 for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar, a seven-seat gap between the two main rivals. This is Israel's first national vote since the October 7, 2023 attacks, so the numbers are being watched closely as an early verdict on wartime leadership. Still, finishing first does not decide who governs, because a bloc needs 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats to form a government.

There are good reasons to be careful with this result. It comes from one channel, and exit polls are early estimates that can differ from one broadcaster to the next. The pollster behind i24NEWS's surveys has also tended to show Likud stronger than other outlets, while most pre-election polls had Eisenkot's Yashar narrowly ahead. Other exit poll coverage suggested that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot had a clear path to victory. The real fight is likely to come in coalition talks, and the final seat count, small parties near the threshold, and the Arab parties could all decide who ends up in power.