President Donald Trump is insisting that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, saying that “a lot of boats are coming through” while declaring the U.S. naval blockade of Iran “extremely effective.” Trump also suggested that the level of maritime activity is not being adequately reported, adding that Washington will continue watching how the situation develops. His remarks come as the strategic waterway remains at the center of the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran.

Independent shipping data, however, shows that traffic remains dramatically below normal levels. Kpler data cited by Reuters showed just nine commodity vessels transited the Strait on Wednesday, August 19, while Reuters reported that only five crossed on August 15 and none were recorded the following day. Before the conflict, more than 130 vessels could pass through the waterway on a typical day, meaning the current level represents a severe reduction even though some ships continue to make the journey.

The competing claims highlight the extraordinary ambiguity surrounding what it means for Hormuz to be “open.” Ships are still getting through, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported 73 transits during August 10–16, including significant non-Iranian-linked traffic, but the number remains far below normal and many operators continue to avoid the route because of security risks. Some vessels may also be moving with their tracking systems switched off, making exact traffic levels difficult to determine.

Iran, meanwhile, has maintained that the Strait will not fully reopen until Washington meets Tehran’s demands, including ending the naval blockade and lifting economic pressure. The standoff has left shipping companies facing an increasingly complicated calculation: risk a passage through a dangerous and politically contested waterway or remain outside the Gulf while waiting for greater certainty. With the Strait carrying a crucial share of global energy supplies before the crisis, even restricted traffic has kept oil markets and international shipping on edge.

Trump’s declaration therefore raises a much bigger question: is the Strait genuinely reopening, or is Washington deliberately redefining what “open” means while maintaining effective control over maritime access? The available evidence shows that the waterway is not completely impassable, but it is operating nowhere near its prewar level. As the U.S. blockade, Iranian demands and shipping risks continue to collide, every vessel that enters or exits Hormuz could become another test of who ultimately controls one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.