The global obesity drug market faces a period of uncertainty as prices for GLP-1 treatments from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly decline sharply in the United States. Once projected to reach $150 billion by the early 2030s, revised Wall Street forecasts now place the market closer to $100 billion, reflecting a combination of political pressures, direct-to-consumer pricing deals, and emerging competition from generics and oral versions of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound.

Monthly U.S. costs for GLP-1 therapies have dropped from roughly $1,000 to between $149 and $299, contributing to slower revenue growth than initially anticipated. Analysts at Jefferies and Goldman Sachs note that while prescription volumes remain strong — approximately 730,000 weekly — the market must continue expanding to offset the erosion caused by lower pricing. This recalibration signals a shift from earlier market hype toward a more measured, sustainable growth trajectory.

Despite the downward revision, experts at BMO Capital Markets remain cautiously optimistic. They estimate that if prescription volumes continue rising, the market could still reach $158 billion by 2033. The adjustment underscores that while short-term revenue may be impacted by price reductions and increased competition, long-term growth potential exists through broader adoption and expanded patient access. Investors and industry watchers are now recalibrating expectations, balancing near-term challenges against the fundamental demand for effective obesity therapies.