President Trump is promising Iran a rough road ahead, telling supporters at a campaign rally in Wasilla, Alaska, on Tuesday, "Wait till you see what we do to Iran. We're going to do a number." He has insisted that the U.S. blockade remains in full force and that oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz in record numbers, claiming 22 million barrels moved in a single night. There is a catch, though: Trump has also said publicly that the U.S. will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, even as Axios reported that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed a major new operation. The mixed signals have left everyone guessing whether the president's tough talk is a real warning or campaign-trail theater. Meanwhile, the situation on the water looks far less settled than Trump's description suggests.

According to Reuters, Iran is changing its tactics, and a U.S. military official confirmed that after American strikes destroyed much of Iran's radar capability, the Revolutionary Guards began using unarmed spotters in small boats to identify targets, including U.S. naval vessels. The official said U.S. forces recently confronted one such spotter vessel, a dhow, ordered its occupants off and destroyed it, with no casualties. Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters the new approach is meant to keep oil prices high and influence the U.S. elections, and shipping data shows attacks widening beyond the strait to waters off Qatar and the UAE, with UKMTO logging 24 warnings so far this month. The fighting is not confined to the sea either, as Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are trading fresh strikes in Yemen's escalating war, raising fears that the conflict could spill across the region. With oil prices, shipping lanes and a major election all in play, the next few weeks could be decisive.