President Donald Trump said he believes Cuba’s communist regime is on the brink of collapse and made clear that the United States does not need to take military action to bring it about. Speaking candidly, Trump predicted the island’s government will fall under the weight of its own failures, using a boxing metaphor to describe what he sees as an inevitable outcome.

“I think it’s just going to fall,” Trump said. “I don’t think we need any action. It looks like it’s going down — it’s going down for the count. You ever watch a fight? They go down for the count, and Cuba looks like it’s going down.” His remarks were met with visible enthusiasm from Senator Lindsey Graham, who has long argued that the Cuban regime is unsustainable.

Trump’s assessment comes amid rapidly worsening economic conditions in Cuba, driven in large part by the collapse of its most critical external support: Venezuela. For years, Havana relied heavily on subsidized Venezuelan oil to keep its economy functioning. Estimates indicate that Venezuela supplied roughly 100,000 barrels per day, covering about 60 percent of Cuba’s daily oil needs.

That lifeline effectively ended following the removal of Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026. With Venezuela no longer able or willing to prop up the Cuban government, fuel shortages have intensified across the island, compounding existing problems such as food scarcity, blackouts, and inflation. The sudden loss of subsidized energy has accelerated pressures on an economy already near breaking point.

Trump’s comments reflect a broader strategic view that regime collapse in Cuba does not require U.S. military involvement. Instead, he framed the situation as the natural consequence of decades of mismanagement, authoritarian control, and dependence on external benefactors. From this perspective, recent regional shifts have merely exposed how fragile the Cuban system has become.

The president’s stance also signals restraint. While the Trump Administration has demonstrated a willingness to use force when U.S. security interests are directly threatened, Trump suggested that Cuba’s downfall is unfolding without American intervention. In his view, the regime is losing its ability to sustain itself, and the countdown has already begun.

As shortages deepen and public frustration grows, Trump’s remarks underscore a belief that the Cuban people are approaching a decisive moment. Whether the regime can survive without Venezuelan support remains an open question, but the president left little doubt about his conclusion: Cuba, he says, is already on the mat.