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NECK AND NECK: Bolsonaro And Lula Battle For Votes In Narrow Runoff Race in Brazil

October 17th,

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One week before Brazil's October 25 presidential runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign is putting on a show of strength. Video circulating online shows supporters packed shoulder to shoulder at a large rally, with a main road reportedly shut down for the crowd, and he then headed to Salvador for another event. Bolsonaro, a senator and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who has endorsed him, is facing leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second round. He came out on top in the first round on October 4 with 47.03 percent of the vote to Lula's 45.16 percent, beating most polls that had predicted a Lula lead. Both camps are now pushing hard for turnout in what is shaping up as a deeply polarized finish.

Recent polls give Bolsonaro a slight edge, with one reported by Al Jazeera showing him about two points ahead and another from Datafolha also putting him in front, though several surveys remain within the margin of error. Analysts note that he has not gained as much as expected from the eliminated conservative candidates, and Lula has answered with his own large rallies that have drawn huge crowds since his first-round setback. A court in Bahia also barred Salvador's city council from handing Bolsonaro a citizen title at his rally there until the election process ends, adding a legal twist to the weekend. Because polls underestimated Bolsonaro in the first round, nobody can say for sure how accurate the current numbers are. The question now is which side can turn its energy in the streets into votes on October 25.